U.S.-China Trade War Worsens, but Investors Bet on a Deal – The New York Times


Business|U.S.-China Trade War Worsens, but Investors Bet on a Deal

Trade war? No problem.

Global markets largely rose on Friday just hours after President Trumpescalated his trade war with China. The stock market in China, which sometimes gets a lift from state-run companies looking to buoy the market, led the global rise.

Futures that allow investors to bet on the performance of stocks in the United States indicated that stocks on Wall Street would open a little lower.

Early Friday, Mr. Trump raised tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on Chinese imports that are worth about $200 billion a year. He said the increase came in response to Chinese officials attempting to “renegotiate” a pact aimed at calling a trade war truce. China said it would respond with unspecified countermeasures.

Still, many investors believe the two sides can reach a deal, especially since the Trump administration effectively delayed the full brunt of the tariff increase. The Trump administration specified that it would collect the tariffs only on goods that leave China starting on Friday. That means they will not hit Chinese goods already on ships destined for the United States, though they goods that are flown in will be more immediately affected.

“Our base case remains that the U.S. and China will eventually reach some kind of accord,” Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer for the Swiss bank UBS, said in a research note. “Both the U.S. and China have strong incentives to reach a deal and we do not expect a complete breakdown in negotiations.”

European markets opened modestly higher. By late morning, the Dax in Germany was up 1.1 percent and the CAC 40 in France was 0.9 percent higher. The FTSE 100 in London rose 0.6 percent.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.1 percent, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 3.8 percent.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 0.8 percent.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.3 percent after disappointing wage data there.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent.

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